Daniel Yergin
Author
1947-02-06
Quotes by Daniel Yergin
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The starting point for energy security today as it has always been is diversification of supplies and sources.
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The bulk of extra supplies that could be put into the market come from two places. One, they come from other Persian Gulf suppliers, of which Saudi Arabia is at the top of the list.
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So the major obstacle to the development of new supplies is not geology but what happens above ground: international affairs, politics, investment and technology.
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But that's not enough: To maintain energy security, one needs a supply system that provides a buffer against shocks. It needs large, flexible markets. And it's important to acknowledge the fact that the entire energy supply chain needs to be protected.
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Cycles of shortage and surplus characterize the entire history of oil.
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But the key thing is that Iraq, while it's got very large oil reserves, has marginalized itself as an oil exporter and these days its exports are only about one tenth that of neighboring Saudi Arabia.
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This has a lot to do with the unrest in Nigeria, but also with the production loss after the hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, the decline in Iraq since the 2003 war, and the decline in Venezuelan output since 2002.
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We are living in a different world now. You can see it everywhere in international relations: It was noteworthy that, after his visit to Washington, the Chinese president's next stop was Saudi Arabia.
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We experienced similar fears in the 1880s, at the end of World War I and II. And we ran out in the 1970s.
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